deep-finance-mcmc-revenue(automation) · Curator Automations

NAME

deep-finance-mcmc-revenue — "Posterior: 68% probability you clear $10K this quarter; 95% credible interval $8.4K–$11.7K."

SYNOPSIS

id deep-finance-mcmc-revenue tier deep-purple section §22. Finance — AI/subsystem + deep-purple cluster (37) trigger operator-asked shape SINGLE

DESCRIPTION

Guess many possible futures with weighted dice, then average them. Each guess uses what we've already seen to nudge the dice; over thousands of throws, the averages converge on a real probability distribution for future revenue — not a point guess, but a range with confidence bands.

"Posterior: 68% probability you clear $10K this quarter; 95% credible interval $8.4K–$11.7K."

MECHANISM

not-yet-implemented — no cart file at curator-web/src/scheme/carts/…/deep-finance-mcmc-revenue.sks

EXAMPLES

Sakura uses this when you ask "will I clear $10K this quarter?" She runs a Bayesian model over your last 18 months of receipts and tells you the probability honestly: "68% chance you clear it; the 95% range is $8,400 to $11,700." Not a guess — a posterior distribution from your own data.

TIER

deep purple

deep reasoning · batched · dollars per run

FITNESS

Not yet

This method only gives a real answer above a sample threshold. Running it on a small shop produces a confidence band the size of the universe — useless. When the shop crosses the threshold, this lights up.

HISTORY

canonical source: curator/docs/AUTOMATIONS-CANONICAL.md · §22-finance-aisubsystem-deep-purple-cluster-37
last regenerated: 2026-06-05 20:31 UTC (mechanical — edits land in the MD or sidecars, not here)

KNOWN BUGS

(none recorded — flag in AUTOMATIONS-CANONICAL.md or open an issue against the cart file)